San Francisco Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How San Francisco settles
KXHIGHTSFOKXLOWTSFOOur projection vs the market
High · 2026-09-13
We project 72°F · likely range 72–72°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | — | 0% |
| 67° to 68° | — | 0% |
| 69° to 70° | — | 0% |
| 71° to 72° | — | 98% |
| 73° to 74° | — | 2% |
| 75° or above | — | 0% |
High · 2026-09-14
We project 77°F · likely range 72–79°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 3¢ | 15% |
| 72° to 73° | 13¢ | 11% |
| 74° to 75° | 38¢ | 15% |
| 76° to 77° | 34¢ | 17% |
| 78° to 79° | 13¢ | 16% |
| 80° or above | 2¢ | 26% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
Get San Francisco edges by email
One email a day, only when we actually find something. Free right now, and every pick is graded publicly.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.