Chicago Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Chicago settles
KXHIGHCHIKXLOWTCHIWorth knowing
Chicago's market settles at Midway (KMDW), not O'Hare. This trips up almost everyone: O'Hare is the airport people quote, it's the one most weather apps show for “Chicago”, and on a given day the two can differ by a couple of degrees. Reading O'Hare produces a systematic error that feels like an edge.
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-09-13
We project 75°F · likely range 75–75°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | — | 0% |
| 72° to 73° | — | 0% |
| 74° to 75° | — | 63% |
| 76° to 77° | — | 36% |
| 78° to 79° | — | 0% |
| 80° or above | — | 0% |
Low · 2026-09-13
Our model is under review for this day
Our projection currently differs from the National Weather Service forecast by more than 3°F for this day, so we've withheld our numbers rather than show you something we don't trust. Market prices below are unaffected.
| Range | Market | Our fair value (withheld) |
|---|---|---|
| 56° or below | 4¢ | — |
| 57° to 58° | 20¢ | — |
| 59° to 60° | 55¢ | — |
| 61° to 62° | 7¢ | — |
| 63° to 64° | — | — |
| 65° or above | — | — |
High · 2026-09-14
We project 74°F · likely range 72–77°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 2¢ | 17% |
| 72° to 73° | 16¢ | 21% |
| 74° to 75° | 50¢ | 25% |
| 76° to 77° | 30¢ | 21% |
| 78° to 79° | 4¢ | 11% |
| 80° or above | 2¢ | 5% |
Low · 2026-09-14
Our model is under review for this day
Our projection currently differs from the National Weather Service forecast by more than 3°F for this day, so we've withheld our numbers rather than show you something we don't trust. Market prices below are unaffected.
| Range | Market | Our fair value (withheld) |
|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | — | — |
| 50° to 51° | — | — |
| 52° to 53° | 7¢ | — |
| 54° to 55° | 30¢ | — |
| 56° to 57° | 56¢ | — |
| 58° or above | 9¢ | — |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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