Chicago Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Chicago settles
KXHIGHCHIKXLOWTCHIWorth knowing
Chicago's market settles at Midway (KMDW), not O'Hare. This trips up almost everyone: O'Hare is the airport people quote, it's the one most weather apps show for “Chicago”, and on a given day the two can differ by a couple of degrees. Reading O'Hare produces a systematic error that feels like an edge.
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-10-29
We project 68°F · likely range 67–70°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 15¢ | 28% |
| 68° to 69° | 24¢ | 47% |
| 70° to 71° | 43¢ | 22% |
| 72° to 73° | 15¢ | 2% |
| 74° to 75° | 2¢ | 0% |
| 76° or above | 2¢ | 0% |
Low · 2026-10-29
Our model is under review for this day
Our projection currently differs from the National Weather Service forecast by more than 3°F for this day, so we've withheld our numbers rather than show you something we don't trust. Market prices below are unaffected.
| Range | Market | Our fair value (withheld) |
|---|---|---|
| 49° or below | 20¢ | — |
| 50° to 51° | 27¢ | — |
| 52° to 53° | 31¢ | — |
| 54° to 55° | 19¢ | — |
| 56° to 57° | 3¢ | — |
| 58° or above | 2¢ | — |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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