Chicago Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Chicago settles
KXHIGHCHIKXLOWTCHIWorth knowing
Chicago's market settles at Midway (KMDW), not O'Hare. This trips up almost everyone: O'Hare is the airport people quote, it's the one most weather apps show for “Chicago”, and on a given day the two can differ by a couple of degrees. Reading O'Hare produces a systematic error that feels like an edge.
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-07-30
We project 87°F · likely range 85–90°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 84° or below | 7¢ | 2% |
| 85° to 86° | 29¢ | 31% |
| 87° to 88° | 53¢ | 46% |
| 89° to 90° | 12¢ | 21% |
| 91° to 92° | 2¢ | 1% |
| 93° or above | — | 0% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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