Los Angeles Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Los Angeles settles
KXHIGHLAXKXLOWTLAXWorth knowing
Los Angeles settles at LAX, which sits on the coast. The marine layer means LAX can run far cooler than downtown or the valleys on the same afternoon — and it's the hardest station on the board to forecast, because models often disagree sharply about whether the marine layer burns off.
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-07-30
We project 84°F · likely range 83–85°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 75° or below | 2¢ | 0% |
| 76° to 77° | 20¢ | 0% |
| 78° to 79° | 62¢ | 0% |
| 80° to 81° | 17¢ | 0% |
| 82° to 83° | 3¢ | 22% |
| 84° or above | 3¢ | 77% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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