Las Vegas Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Las Vegas settles
Settlement stationHarry Reid Intl (KLAS)
SourceNWS Climatological Report (CLI)
Daily high series
KXHIGHTLVDaily low series
KXLOWTLVRoundingWhole degrees — “above 96°” means 97° or higher
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-07-30
We project 109°F · likely range 108–110°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 107° or below | 2¢ | 1% |
| 108° to 109° | 15¢ | 65% |
| 110° to 111° | 66¢ | 33% |
| 112° to 113° | 17¢ | 0% |
| 114° to 115° | — | 0% |
| 116° or above | — | 0% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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