Miami Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Miami settles
Settlement stationMiami Intl (KMIA)
SourceNWS Climatological Report (CLI)
Daily high series
KXHIGHMIADaily low series
KXLOWTMIARoundingWhole degrees — “above 96°” means 97° or higher
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-10-29
We project 86°F · likely range 85–87°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 82° or below | — | 0% |
| 83° to 84° | 3¢ | 14% |
| 85° to 86° | 19¢ | 54% |
| 87° to 88° | 66¢ | 28% |
| 89° to 90° | 11¢ | 5% |
| 91° or above | 2¢ | 0% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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