Miami Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Miami settles
Settlement stationMiami Intl (KMIA)
SourceNWS Climatological Report (CLI)
Daily high series
KXHIGHMIADaily low series
KXLOWTMIARoundingWhole degrees — “above 96°” means 97° or higher
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-07-30
We project 95°F · likely range 94–97°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 89° or below | — | 0% |
| 90° to 91° | — | 0% |
| 92° to 93° | 8¢ | 10% |
| 94° to 95° | 47¢ | 55% |
| 96° to 97° | 39¢ | 34% |
| 98° or above | 7¢ | 1% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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