Austin Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Austin settles
Settlement stationAustin-Bergstrom Intl (KAUS)
SourceNWS Climatological Report (CLI)
Daily high series
KXHIGHAUSDaily low series
KXLOWTAUSRoundingWhole degrees — “above 96°” means 97° or higher
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-10-29
We project 77°F · likely range 76–78°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 76° or below | 59¢ | 22% |
| 77° to 78° | 32¢ | 60% |
| 79° to 80° | 9¢ | 17% |
| 81° to 82° | 2¢ | 0% |
| 83° to 84° | 2¢ | 0% |
| 85° or above | — | 0% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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