Austin Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How Austin settles
KXHIGHAUSKXLOWTAUSOur projection vs the market
High · 2026-09-13
We project 100°F · likely range 100–102°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 96° or below | — | 0% |
| 97° to 98° | — | 0% |
| 99° to 100° | — | 34% |
| 101° to 102° | — | 58% |
| 103° to 104° | — | 8% |
| 105° or above | — | 0% |
High · 2026-09-14
We project 99°F · likely range 97–101°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 96° or below | 4¢ | 12% |
| 97° to 98° | 11¢ | 25% |
| 99° to 100° | 54¢ | 34% |
| 101° to 102° | 32¢ | 23% |
| 103° to 104° | 3¢ | 6% |
| 105° or above | — | 1% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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