New York City Weather Markets on Kalshi
Today's projected temperature next to what the market is charging. Contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading — not a phone app, and not necessarily the airport you'd expect.
How New York City settles
KXHIGHNYKXLOWTNYCWorth knowing
New York settles at Central Park (KNYC), not LaGuardia or JFK. Central Park is inland and reads differently from the airports, especially on sea-breeze days.
Our projection vs the market
High · 2026-09-13
We project 79°F · likely range 79–79°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | — | 0% |
| 78° to 79° | — | 87% |
| 80° to 81° | — | 12% |
| 82° to 83° | — | 0% |
| 84° to 85° | — | 0% |
| 86° or above | — | 0% |
High · 2026-09-14
We project 73°F · likely range 71–76°F
| Range | Market | Our fair value |
|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 33¢ | 55% |
| 74° to 75° | 57¢ | 22% |
| 76° to 77° | 11¢ | 14% |
| 78° to 79° | 3¢ | 6% |
| 80° to 81° | — | 2% |
| 82° or above | — | 1% |
Market prices are mid-quotes and move through the day; our figures are what the model currently projects, not a guarantee. Highlighted rows are where we differ from the market most — which is a disagreement, not a promise. Every pick we publish is graded win or lose on our public record.
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